According to a quarterly report from an industry research firm, the well-to-wake emissions intensity of individual voyages on the same trade lane can differ by as much as 35% depending on the carrier, meaning shippers' carrier choices significantly affect the carbon profile of their cargo.
What Happened
The report analyzed 83,817 voyages performed by 6,730 container-carrying vessels across four major fronthaul trades. It found that in the third quarter of 2026, average fleet-wide well-to-wake intensity remained broadly stable at 235.1 g CO₂e/TEU-km, up 0.5% year over year. Total emissions fell 1.9% year over year to 55.5 million tonnes CO₂e, while transport work rose 1.2% to 712 billion TEU-km.
Five of six vessel-size categories improved their emissions intensity year over year, with VLCS improving the most at 12.9% and Panamax at 3.4%. However, Feeder intensity rose 1.3% to 285.9 g CO₂e/TEU-km, and feeders accounted for 65% of all voyages.
Port time increased across all vessel sizes, with some trade lanes seeing substantial rises. On the Northern Europe–North America East Coast trade, port time jumped 52.1% to 2.1 days. The report also noted that the gradual return to the Suez Canal has yet to materially shorten Asia–Europe voyages, as most voyages still used the Cape of Good Hope route.
Background
The report combines AIS-based vessel tracking with vessel-specific digital twin models to estimate fuel consumption and well-to-wake emissions at the voyage level, rather than relying solely on published emission factors or aggregate carrier data. It emphasizes that absolute emissions are a poor measure of efficiency—on the China/East Asia–Northern Europe trade, the carrier with the lowest emissions intensity among the three examined also recorded the highest average emissions per voyage, highlighting the importance of cargo volumes and vessel utilization.
The report also shows that utilization and vessel size drive efficiency. Voyages below 50 g CO₂e/TEU-km averaged 80% utilization, against 32% for those at or above 800 g. Of the 2,226 highest-intensity voyages, 90% were operated by Feeder and Panamax vessels.
Impact on Shippers
For Chinese exporters to the US, carrier selection is increasingly a key variable not only for rates and transit times but also for supply chain carbon reporting. As US and European customers and platforms tighten scope 3 emissions disclosure requirements, the up-to-35% emissions intensity gap among carriers on the same lane could directly affect shippers' carbon reports and compliance costs.
On the customs and compliance front, if future carbon border adjustment mechanisms or customer audits require transport emissions data, choosing carriers and vessel types with lower emissions intensity can reduce the difficulty of data preparation. The report also signals that longer port stays can erode efficiency, and shippers should watch for congestion at destination ports affecting overall transit times.
Recommendations
Shippers are advised to factor voyage-level emissions performance into carrier evaluation alongside rates and capacity, prioritizing vessel types with lower emissions intensity and higher utilization on target lanes. For time-sensitive cargo, build in buffers for longer port stays at destination, and align with customers in advance on the methodology for transport emissions data to avoid compliance review issues caused by data discrepancies.