US truckload (TL) linehaul rates rose 10.1% year over year in September 2026, while freight shipments grew 1.9% year over year, the second consecutive monthly increase after a 42-month decline, according to monthly data from Cass Information Systems.
What Happened
Cass' TL linehaul index, which excludes fuel and accessorial surcharges, was up 10.1% year over year and 0.6% from August, reaching its highest absolute reading in four years. The index is historically weighted toward contract rates but also includes for-hire spot rates. September marked the 21st straight month of year-over-year growth, with a two-year stacked gain of 12.9%.
The report noted that the sequential growth rate was 30 basis points below the year-to-date average, citing a pullback in spot rates and fewer contractual bids "this time of year." It added that even as spot rates slow with modest sequential declines, the much larger contract market is still adjusting higher.
On volumes, Cass-recorded shipments rose 1.9% year over year in September and 2.3% from August (1.4% higher seasonally adjusted). The index covers all domestic transportation modes, with TL and less-than-truckload shipments making up the bulk. The expenditures index, which includes fuel, jumped 20.4% year over year and 6.7% sequentially, driven by higher shipments, rising rates and surging diesel prices. Diesel prices were up 68% year over year in September and 15% higher than August.
Background
Truckload carriers said at investor conferences last month that they remain in a position of strength this bid season. Executives believe the capacity exodus is accelerating rather than slowing, and that stricter regulatory enforcement could remove thousands more non-compliant operators. A proxy for truck capacity, the tender rejection index, shows a tight truckload market.
Demand is also showing signs of improvement. The report said modest retail and industrial growth, along with some inventory restocking as container imports surge, is supporting freight demand, while a smaller private fleet and rising new equipment sales support higher for-hire volumes. US manufacturing activity remained in expansion for a ninth straight month in September, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 54.5 and new orders at 55.3. Cass forecasts shipments to rise 4% year over year in October and expenditures to increase 23% year over year, assuming normal seasonal patterns hold.
Impact on Shippers
Chinese exporters that rely heavily on US inland trucking should watch for higher last-mile costs. Sustained increases in TL contract rates mean that US domestic drayage, truck delivery and warehouse-to-warehouse quotes may face upward pressure at renewal, while the sharp year-over-year rise in diesel prices pushes fuel surcharges higher, further lifting overall logistics costs.
On transit times, a tight capacity market and elevated tender rejection rates mean that during peak periods or concentrated shipment windows, US inland container pickup and delivery may face queues and delays, especially for remote warehouses and FBA facilities where appointment slots can be harder to secure. Customs clearance itself is not directly affected by truckload rates, but if a truck cannot be arranged promptly after clearance, demurrage and detention charges can add indirect costs.
Recommendations
Shippers are advised to confirm fourth-quarter and early-2027 truck delivery pricing and fuel surcharge mechanisms with their last-mile providers in advance to avoid sudden increases. For time-sensitive cargo or shipments with warehouse receiving deadlines, allow more time for US inland transport and book warehouse appointments early. Also verify bills of lading, customs documents and delivery addresses to reduce truck waiting time and extra charges caused by documentation issues. Rates and policies are subject to the latest announcements from carriers and official sources.