China's 2026 seaborne thermal coal imports are tracking toward a central estimate of 295 million tonnes, within a 285–310 Mt range, according to Signal Ocean voyage estimates that include lignite and all anthracite.
Provisional arrivals through 30 October totalled 236.05 Mt. October alone accounted for 24.72 Mt over 29.30 days, or 0.844 Mt per day. Hold that pace through the remaining 62.70 days of the year and the total lands at 288.96 Mt — 6.04 Mt short of the central case.
That gap is the winter restocking question. As of 2 November, procurement evidence had not yet shown the extra volume would materialise.
What twelve power plants can explain
The model focuses on twelve facilities linked to four power groups. They received 4.685 Mt of China's 24.720 Mt of October arrivals to the cutoff, or 18.95%. Their modelled November–December receipts total 9.752 Mt, against 9.755 Mt at their October pace.
In other words, the big plants running at current rates do not generate the increment on their own. The remaining receivers would need 47.76 Mt in the last two months, 14.5% above their 41.71 Mt baseline.
A new unit at Chaozhou is a variable. The 1 GW coal-fired Unit 5 first connected to the grid on 25 October, so last winter's generation may understate this winter's dispatch. If Chaozhou holds October's import pace, its modelled 1.02 Mt decline disappears and national arrivals reach about 290 Mt — still 5 Mt below the central case.
On 13 October, Datang sought a 70,000-tonne (±10%) imported coal cargo for delivery to Chaozhou between 28 November and 10 December, with berth draught limited to 14.2 m. The tender gives a parcel size and a delivery window, but no award or evidence that the cargo would add to routine receipts has surfaced.
Domestic output and stocks pull both ways
At its 30 October briefing, the National Energy Administration said it had encouraged key regions and companies to increase coal imports as domestic output recovered. September raw-coal production at industrial enterprises above designated size was 6.8% below a year earlier. Delays in delivering the grades coastal plants need could leave more room for seaborne coal.
Stocks temper that case. On 25 October, nationally dispatched power plants held 210 Mt of coal, or 35 days of cover, close to the three-year average. The NEA also reported coal-fired generation fell 1.9% year on year in September. With that much inventory, utilities can meet higher burn from stock for a while.
Prices offer little incentive to switch. The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association assessed both imported grades at RMB 5–10/t above comparable domestic coal on 30 October. Coastal plants were buying for immediate needs.
The weather outlook is mild. The 26 October climate outlook favoured near-normal to warmer conditions across most of China for 9–24 November, with Guangdong and much of Fujian forecast at 1–2°C above normal.
For container freight forwarders on the US trades, the direct link is not boxes but Panamax bulk capacity. China-bound Panamax thermal coal volumes were almost flat year on year through 30 October, but a longer average haul lifted estimated tonne-miles by 1.52%. At 295 Mt, the choice of loading area and vessel size still moves how much work Panamaxes get this winter.
Indonesian logistics could shift the timing of individual cargoes. Indo Tambangraya Megah said September low Mahakam River levels cut barge payloads by 30–40% at affected Melak operations, while its coastal Indominco operation at Bontang was unaffected. November loadings depend on river conditions and coal availability at the loading point.
Two things to watch: whether additional year-end import tenders are awarded, and whether coastal plant stocks start to draw down. If both appear, 295 Mt has support; if neither does, the 285 Mt lower bound looks more realistic.