According to Drewry's latest cancelled sailings tracker, the container market is entering a new phase after Golden Week: capacity is gradually returning, but pricing pressure is building unevenly across the major trades, creating a mixed picture for shippers.
What Happened
Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) stood at $4,351 per 40ft on 8 October, down 2% week on week, as rates eased across the Transpacific, Asia–Europe/Med and Transatlantic trades.
Across the major East–West trades, 34 blank sailings are expected from week 42 (12–18 October) to week 46 (9–15 November) out of 713 planned sailings, a cancellation rate of about 5%, meaning roughly 95% of scheduled sailings are expected to operate.
The disruptions are unevenly distributed: Asia–North Europe/Med accounts for 50% of cancellations, followed by the Transpacific eastbound at 32% and the Transatlantic at 18%.
Background
The report notes that Asia–Europe/Med remains under the greatest pressure, partly because the gradual return of services via Suez is adding effective capacity, while carriers adjust to changing routing conditions.
Drewry said it will continue to track blank-sailing programmes, effective capacity, Suez routings and global port congestion to see how the post-Golden Week market develops.
Impact on Shippers
For Chinese exporters shipping to the US, the Transpacific eastbound lane accounts for about a third of cancellations, but with an overall cancellation rate of just 5%, capacity supply is relatively stable. In the short term, the risk of rolled cargo or rebooking due to blank sailings is lower, and booking success rates may improve.
However, the report cautions that port congestion and ongoing network adjustments may still constrain effective capacity, keeping rates elevated on some trades. Shippers should watch actual rates and schedules on specific lanes rather than relying solely on the overall index; no customs policy changes directly linked to this capacity adjustment were noted.
Recommendations
Shippers are advised to lock in space for late October to mid-November based on their own volumes, prioritise lanes with lower cancellation ratios and stable schedules for time-sensitive cargo, verify the latest schedules and transshipment arrangements with their freight forwarders, allow buffer for potential port congestion delays, and keep documentation consistent with final sailing schedules.