MSC achieved 68.9% schedule reliability on east-west container trades in August-September 2026, narrowly ahead of the Gemini Cooperation at 68.4%, according to Sea-Intelligence. Gemini's reliability fell 9.4 percentage points month on month, well short of its roughly 90% target, though Maersk remained the most reliable individual carrier.
What Happened
Sea-Intelligence data showed overall east-west reliability fell 3.5 percentage points month on month to 53.6%. The Ocean Alliance reached 44.8%, down 3.4 points, while the Premier Alliance came in at 41.5%, down 1.5 points.
Gemini's reliability dropped 9.4 percentage points to 68.4%, while MSC fell 1.2 points to 68.9%, taking the overall lead. By trade, Gemini achieved 92.9% on Asia-North Europe versus MSC's 78.2%, and 83.2% on Asia-Mediterranean versus 77.1%. Backhaul trades from North America and Europe to Asia were weaker, which industry observers linked to typhoon-related disruptions at Far East ports.
The transatlantic remained a strength for Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd: 98.7% on North America East Coast-Mediterranean, 97% on North America East Coast-North Europe, 100% westbound on Mediterranean-North America East Coast and 91.1% on North Europe-North America East Coast.
Among individual carriers, Maersk led at 64.8%, followed by Hapag-Lloyd at 60.4%, MSC at 57.7% and CMA CGM at 51.8%. None of the 13 major carriers improved versus September 2025. Industry-wide reliability edged up 0.9 points to 50.6% in September after three consecutive monthly declines wiped off 14.8 points. Average delay for late arrivals improved 0.3 days to 6.65 days, still the second-highest September figure on record.
Background
Reliability on east-west mainlines has fallen from its May peak, reflecting peak-season capacity deployment, port congestion and weather disruptions. Gemini has maintained high performance on European and transatlantic routes but still faces challenges in network-wide consistency, while MSC has been relatively resilient overall.
Impact on Shippers
On transit time, Asia-USWC reliability fell 7.1 points to 53.5% and Asia-USEC dropped 8.6 points to 53%, meaning about half of sailings may miss their scheduled arrival, so shippers should build more buffer into first-mile and last-mile planning. On cost, unstable schedules raise demurrage, rebooking and warehousing expenses and can disrupt peak-season stocking. On customs, greater arrival variance requires more flexible declaration and pickup scheduling to avoid late-filing or storage fees.
Recommendations
Shippers should choose lanes based on actual schedule performance rather than carrier reputation alone, allow 3-5 days of buffer for time-sensitive cargo on USWC and USEC routes, front-load peak-season inventory and use overseas warehouses for distribution, and verify bills of lading, customs documents and arrival notices in advance to reduce extra costs from schedule volatility.