US authorities have revoked visas for about 25,000 Mexican truck drivers, sharply reducing the pool of qualified operators able to haul cross-border loads and driving up tender rejection rates and spot rates on key US-Mexico lanes, according to a report. Industry observers expect the capacity squeeze to continue well into 2027.
What Happened
The report says US authorities revoked B-1 visas for roughly 25,000 Mexican truck drivers, cutting cross-border driver supply. According to freight data cited in the report, tender rejections at El Paso peaked at about 24-25% in early July and remain near 20%; San Diego/Otay Mesa stands at about 10%, up from 3.9% a year earlier; Laredo briefly touched 6.07% on Oct. 3 before rebounding to 7.78% by Oct. 10. The national tender rejection rate rose from 5.7% to 13.8% over the same period.
Spot rates on high-volume Mexico-origin corridors reflect the tighter conditions: San Diego-to-Phoenix is up 57% year over year, Laredo-to-Dallas up 43%, Laredo-to-Chicago up 35%, and El Paso-to-Dallas up 28%. The Mexico Contract Volume Index shows volume is relatively stable, suggesting the rate pressure stems from fewer available drivers rather than a demand spike.
At the Canadian border, the dynamic differs: Canadian exports remain firm, but weak northbound return freight makes backhauls hard to find, prompting some carriers to avoid certain US markets or demand premium pay. Rates on select Canada corridors are up 20% to 35% over the past six weeks, and the Canadian rejection rate has climbed from roughly 4% to about 5.5% year over year.
Background
Cross-border trucking has long relied on Mexican drivers for southbound freight. The mass visa revocations have shrunk the qualified driver pool, reducing available capacity and pushing rejection rates and spot rates higher. Unlike the driver shortage at the US-Mexico border, the US-Canada crunch stems from a freight imbalance—strong exports but weak northbound return loads—which lowers carriers' willingness to take loads and raises their asking rates. The report notes that across both borders, demand is relatively soft while capacity is constrained and rates are rising.
Impact on Shippers
For Chinese exporters to the US that use US-Mexico border crossings for transshipment or distribution, the most direct impact is on transit time and cost. Higher rejection rates mean carriers are more selective, so bookings and container pickups for ordinary cargo may be delayed, and southbound transit times could lengthen. Spot rates up 28% to 57% year over year will raise freight costs for those relying on the spot market. On customs clearance, the visa issue itself does not change cargo clearance rules, but capacity tightness may lengthen border queues and inspection waits, affecting overall delivery schedules.
It is worth noting that this capacity tightening mainly affects US-Mexico and US-Canada land border corridors. For cargo entering US ports by ocean and then moving inland, the impact is more indirect—if carriers prioritize higher-yield border lanes, truck capacity elsewhere may be diverted, potentially affecting last-mile delivery pricing and timing.
Recommendations
Shippers should assess routes that transit the US-Mexico border or rely on US inland trucking for last-mile delivery, build in buffer time for transport and clearance, and clarify rate-adjustment and delay-liability clauses in contracts to avoid cost overruns from spot-market volatility. It is also advisable to review port-of-entry choices and documentation with logistics providers, and where necessary evaluate alternative gateways or transport modes to spread capacity risk.