Industry analyst Drewry said in a recent webinar that overcapacity in the container shipping market will be difficult to avoid in 2027, with the real uncertainty being its severity. A poll of webinar attendees showed more than 70% expect some degree of overcapacity next year.
What Happened
Drewry noted that around 5 mteu of new capacity has been ordered in each of the past three years, pushing the orderbook-to-fleet ratio to approximately 45%, the highest since 2009. The orderbook is approaching 16 mteu, with September recording 1.1 mteu of new contracts, the second-busiest contracting month on record. The world's two largest carriers placed major orders: MSC for 20 × 24,000 teu ships and Maersk for 20 × 18,600 teu ships.
In the attendee poll, more than 70% expected some degree of overcapacity in 2027, with 56.7% anticipating a moderate surplus and 14.2% predicting significant overcapacity. Only 14.4% expected the market to remain broadly balanced, while 5.3% foresaw a tight market. On the key determining factor, 39.4% chose newbuild deliveries, 29.0% network disruption and port congestion, 18.6% carrier capacity management, 11.7% cargo demand, and just 1.3% demolitions.
Background
Drewry acknowledged that traditional supply-demand fundamentals no longer tell the whole story. Geopolitical disruption, port congestion and longer sailing distances are absorbing capacity and limiting the amount of nominal fleet capacity available to carry cargo. But the agency argued that these disruptive forces are now structurally embedded and, while they slow the conversion of nominal capacity into effective supply, they will not offset the sheer volume of new tonnage arriving. Its conclusion: overcapacity is unavoidable, and the real uncertainty is its severity.
Drewry further noted that if congestion eases and more vessels return to productive service just as deliveries accelerate, pressure on utilisation, freight rates and carrier earnings could intensify. Persistent disruption and disciplined capacity management could soften the impact, but relying on inefficiencies to keep the market balanced is a precarious strategy.
Impact on Shippers
For cross-border e-commerce sellers and export factories shipping from China to the US, the 2027 overcapacity outlook implies continued pressure on spot ocean rates, with more room to negotiate on the US West and East Coast lanes during traditional off-peak periods, which could keep first-mile costs for ocean parcel and ocean truck delivery relatively moderate. However, rate declines often come with blank sailings, service consolidations and network adjustments, which may reduce sailing frequency and schedule reliability on some lanes and add uncertainty to last-mile connections.
On customs clearance and transit times, if port congestion eases and vessel waiting times shorten, overall transit could improve. But if carriers adjust port calls frequently to absorb capacity, more transshipment may lengthen transit for some cargo. Shippers should focus on schedule stability on specific lanes rather than rates alone.
Recommendations
Shippers should use the expected 2027 capacity loosening to negotiate more flexible rate terms and space guarantees in annual or quarterly contracts; prioritise direct, schedule-stable services for time-sensitive cargo and build in buffer time for transshipment; and keep tracking carrier blank-sailing and network announcements, verifying booking and documentation details in advance to avoid demurrage or rebooking costs caused by schedule changes.