China's ongoing property market adjustment is reshaping Asia's cement trade. According to industry analysis, China has shifted from a clinker importer to an exporter, significantly lengthening voyage distances and generating additional demand for Supramax bulk carriers.
What Happened
In 2020, Vietnam shipped about 36 million tonnes of clinker to China, mostly on short routes from northern Vietnam to southern China. As China's property market slumped and construction slowed, Chinese kilns ran at around half capacity, and by 2025 imports had all but vanished.
Chinese producers turned to exports instead. China's cement exports climbed from under 1 million tonnes in 2022 to a forecast 24.6 million tonnes this year, about two-thirds of which is clinker, heading to Bangladesh, the Philippines and increasingly West Africa. Vietnam found new buyers further afield, with average voyage distances this year about three times those of 2019.
The US market shows a similar pattern of longer, not larger, imports. Turkey and Vietnam have taken share from closer suppliers, with average voyage distances rising from about 5,250 nautical miles in 2019 to about 6,800 nm. According to the report, the new 50% tariff on Canadian cement may stretch distances further.
Background
Export volumes are only about a quarter higher than in 2019, but tonne-miles have doubled. The old Vietnam-China route took about 13 days round trip, while Vietnam to the US Gulf takes about 88 days and China to West Africa about 75. According to the analysis, the extra distance since 2019 equates to the full-time work of around 110 Supramaxes in 2026.
The EU's carbon border charge, in effect since January, prices carbon in imported clinker, prompting Turkish clinker to turn toward West Africa and the Americas, further shifting short-haul to long-haul. Meanwhile, Chinese engineering firms are building cement plants across Africa, the Middle East and the Caribbean, which could reduce clinker import demand in the future.
Impact on Shippers
For Chinese cross-border e-commerce sellers and foreign trade factories exporting to the US, the cement trade shift does not directly involve consumer goods transport, but tight bulk carrier capacity could indirectly affect overall shipping supply and demand. Supramax vessels mainly serve dry bulk, a separate market from container shipping, so the direct impact is limited.
However, if bulk shipping demand continues to absorb capacity, it could tighten vessel availability and port resources, with potential knock-on effects on overall logistics costs during peak seasons. In addition, trade policy changes such as the US tariff on Canadian cement could intensify regional trade flow adjustments, and shippers should watch for capacity and rate fluctuations on relevant routes.
Recommendations
Shippers are advised to monitor how dry bulk capacity changes may indirectly affect port operations and inland distribution, and to plan peak-season space in advance. For US-bound cargo, verify the latest tariff and origin rules to ensure documentation compliance. Maintain communication with logistics providers to stay updated on route rates and transit times.