The global orderbook for containership newbuildings has recently passed 15m TEU and could approach 16m TEU by the end of the year. According to new analysis from Alphaliner, several liner operators are close to finalising a fresh batch of megamax orders that will push the pipeline higher.
What Happened
Alphaliner said around 40 more megamax newbuilding contracts involving Maersk, Yang Ming, CMA CGM and COSCO are expected before the end of the year. Some contracts are believed signed but not yet confirmed, with Maersk and Yang Ming orders expected soon.
On Maersk, Alphaliner reported that the carrier is in exclusive talks with Chinese yards on cost and slot availability, looking to place firm orders for 12 ships of 24,000 TEU, potentially with options for a second series of 12. Tonnage of this size is currently priced at around $240m per vessel.
According to Drewry, the global fleet currently totals about 34m TEU. Even without the unconfirmed 40 newbuildings, the orderbook represents 45% of the current fleet. Almost a third of this, 4.9m TEU, has been ordered this year alone. If the extra 40 vessels are confirmed, this year's orders would comfortably exceed 5.5m TEU, beating last year's record of 5.4m TEU.
Background
The surge in orders comes as shipyard slots tighten and delivery lead times lengthen. Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said the orderbook traditionally covered two to two and a half years of deliveries, but now covers four to four and a half years. A ship ordered today would only be delivered by 2030.
Still, industry figures do not expect new capacity to trigger a sudden rate collapse. Vespucci Maritime CEO Lars Jensen described the coming years as a regular cyclical downturn rather than a 2008-style crash. He said capacity is indeed above what the market can absorb, but a sharp collapse is unlikely.
Habben Jansen added that growing imbalances on major container trades, particularly the gap between China's export and import volumes, plus an expected rise in scrapping, would partly offset new capacity. He noted that volumes on dominant legs have grown about 25% since mid-2023, and combined with inefficiencies from trade barriers and tariffs, another couple of years of decent growth cannot be ruled out.
Impact on Shippers
On transit times, longer delivery lead times mean new capacity will enter the market gradually, so short-term slot supply on the transpacific should remain relatively stable. However, an ageing fleet and uncertain scrapping pace could still cause localised capacity tightness.
On cost, a large orderbook does not mean immediate rate declines. The industry consensus points to a mild cyclical adjustment rather than a cliff-edge fall. For Chinese exporters using ocean-parcel or ocean-truck channels, rates are more likely to ease gradually than plunge, so budgets should not assume sharp short-term cuts.
On customs clearance, inefficiencies from trade barriers and tariffs persist, and imbalances in major trade lanes could increase congestion and schedule delays, so shippers should allow more buffer time for clearance.
Recommendations
Shippers should monitor newbuild deliveries and service adjustments, confirm peak-season space with logistics providers early, and consider building inventory ahead for time-sensitive goods to avoid FBA receiving delays. Check documentation and tariff classification, allow buffer time for customs clearance, and lock in costs in batches rather than betting on a sharp near-term rate decline.