Tanker ordering is leading global newbuilding activity despite elevated prices, according to a new research report by shipbroker Banchero Costa. The firm expects tanker newbuilding prices to remain firm into 2027, with major yards booked through 2029.
What Happened
In January-September 2026, 267 crude tankers totaling 67.0 million dwt were ordered, up 267.7% year on year, including 172 VLCCs. Bulkcarrier ordering rose only 4.7% in dwt terms, while 519 containerships of 4.05 million TEU were contracted, up 11.7%, with 89% of them placed at Chinese yards. LNG carrier orders reached 83 vessels of 13.12 million cubic meters, versus 35 a year earlier.
On pricing, a VLCC was assessed at USD 131.0 million in September 2026, up 7.4% year on year, and a Capesize at USD 79.0 million, up 3.9%. By contrast, a 20,000 TEU containership eased to USD 210.4 million, down 4.8%, and a 180,000 cubic meter LNG carrier to USD 242.0 million, down 3.3%.
Orderbooks vary widely relative to fleet size: containership orders equal 43.5% of the fleet, with the ULCS orderbook at 87% of the ULCS fleet; LNG carriers 40.9% and LPG carriers 38.5%; crude tankers 29.3% and bulkcarriers 14.2%.
Background
The shipbroker noted that the shipbuilding market has shifted from an ordering boom into a delivery wave. About 33% of this year's contracting, in compensated gross tonnage terms, went to new or revived yards, with delays and the 2028 delivery peak seen as the main risks. Further price gains for tankers are expected to be limited as new Chinese capacity comes on stream.
Impact on Shippers
The orderbook mix shapes capacity supply over the next two to three years. With containership orders exceeding 40% of the fleet, boxship capacity will keep entering the market through 2027-2029, easing space and rate pressure on mainlanes such as the transpacific and benefiting Chinese exporters to the US. However, the concentrated delivery peak around 2028 could bring schedule disruption and port congestion.
Heavy tanker and gas carrier ordering reflects stronger energy shipping demand. The direct effect on containerized cross-border e-commerce cargo is limited, but higher shipbuilding and chartering costs can feed into rate floors on some lanes. Customs clearance is not directly affected, but when schedule reliability declines, shippers should allow more buffer for FBA warehouse appointments.
Recommendations
Shippers should consider locking in long-term contracts or space ahead of the 2027-2028 delivery wave. For time-sensitive FBA first-mile cargo, prioritize ocean-parcel or ocean-truck lanes with stable schedules, and front-load inventory before peak season to avoid warehouse appointment delays caused by schedule adjustments during the delivery peak.