US less-than-truckload (LTL) and truckload (TL) carriers reported divergent third-quarter results. LTL operators outperformed on both tonnage and pricing, while truckload companies saw revenue climb but margins squeezed by rising costs.
Old Dominion Freight Line led the LTL group, posting its first year-over-year tonnage gain in two years—an inflection that began in September and carried into October. Revenue per shipment outpaced cost per shipment by 440 basis points, restoring a favorable spread that had been missing for several quarters. The carrier reported an operating ratio of 71.5 for the quarter, with XPO and Saia both in the 80s. All three guided for sequential OR deterioration in Q4, but Old Dominion's implied 73.5 would still represent 320 basis points of year-over-year improvement.
On the truckload side, Knight-Swift stood out with 700 basis points of OR improvement and a Q4 guidance of approximately 86. About 70% of its fleet runs one-way, non-dedicated lanes, giving it greater spot market exposure. Tender rejections ran 2 to 3 times above the broader market, and spot rates exceeded market averages. Internal data showed the spread between revenue and cost per total mile, excluding fuel, swinging from a 90-basis-point lag in Q1 to a positive 390 in Q2 and 840 in Q3. The carrier guided for low-double-digit to mid-teen rate increases on one-way bids, with bid season starting this month.
Diesel prices surged 48% year over year during the quarter. Fuel surcharge recoveries lagged diesel costs in 9 of the 13 weeks, and LTL and truckload stocks fell roughly 30% from their mid-June peaks. The concern centers on the earnings-per-share headwind when diesel prices moderate. Old Dominion management said they would rather see global energy and domestic diesel prices stabilize than rely on fuel revenue as a tailwind.
On the demand side, the ISM manufacturing index has improved for 10 consecutive months and is now in growth territory, closely aligned with tonnage trends at large national LTL carriers, which turned positive in March and have continued to accelerate. Increasing weight per shipment suggests more industrial freight is moving through networks, with some freight returning from truckload. For cross-border sellers using US truck delivery, the recovery in LTL volumes means tail-end capacity may be tighter than in the first half, so peak-season scheduling should build in a buffer.