Cross-border trucking capacity in North America is expected to remain tight into 2027 despite softer freight demand, as driver shortages, regulatory restrictions and rising operating costs limit the number of trucks available to haul goods between the U.S., Mexico and Canada, according to industry reports.
What Happened
Logistics provider TRAFFIX told FreightWaves that capacity along the U.S.-Mexico and U.S.-Canada borders is unlikely to improve in the near term. The company's October North American Cross-Border Index registered 57 for Canada and 54 for Mexico, down one point each from September but still above the 50 threshold that indicates tighter market conditions, including elevated costs, limited truck capacity and regulatory challenges.
On the Mexico side, a shortage of qualified drivers is the core issue. The number of Mexican drivers holding valid B-1 visas is limited, and only a restricted number of trucks are authorized to operate in the U.S. Border bottlenecks further tie up capacity by keeping trucks occupied longer. Citing Mexican trucking association CANACAR, C.H. Robinson said U.S. authorities have withdrawn visas from approximately 25,000 Mexican freight drivers. From Sept. 9-14, restrictions on southbound empty-truck crossings at Eagle Pass and Brownsville, Texas, cut daily commercial crossings from about 1,000 to between 300 and 400, leaving nearly 700 tractors stranded on the U.S. side.
On the Canada side, TRAFFIX executives said trade tensions and shifting freight patterns have created an imbalance between freight moving from Canada into the U.S. and shipments returning north. Higher interest rates and tighter lending conditions are discouraging new trucking companies from entering the market, with financing costs reaching 8% to 9%, far above pandemic-era levels.
Background
During the pandemic, low-cost loans and government stimulus funds encouraged many owner-operators to enter the market, leading to rapid capacity expansion. Today, higher financing costs and stricter regulations have prevented a similar influx. Mexico's driver workforce is also aging, with many drivers in their 50s and 60s, while younger workers are reluctant to join due to security concerns and relatively low pay.
Cross-border operations require drivers and equipment that meet specific regulatory requirements, reducing the pool of carriers able to handle international shipments. Border delays and longer transit times further reduce usable capacity even when overall shipment demand remains stable.
Impact on Shippers
For Chinese exporters and cross-border e-commerce sellers shipping to the U.S., tight cross-border truck capacity in Mexico and Canada could indirectly affect logistics routes that transit through these countries. Shippers using Mexican border crossings for U.S. delivery should anticipate longer transit times and potential delays. Cross-border truck rates are likely to stay elevated due to capacity constraints and higher costs, potentially raising overall logistics expenses.
On customs clearance, the withdrawal of B-1 visas for Mexican drivers and border crossing restrictions could increase dwell times at the border. Shippers should allow more time for customs and transshipment, especially for cargo relying on major gateways such as Laredo, Texas.
Recommendations
Shippers are advised to reassess logistics plans that involve transiting through Mexico or Canada, and to build additional buffer in inventory and transit schedules. Prioritize service providers with stable cross-border capacity and verified driver and vehicle compliance. For time-sensitive cargo, consider shifting to direct U.S. West or East Coast port routes to reduce reliance on cross-border trucking. Ensure all customs documents are complete to mitigate potential border delays. For specific policies and border conditions, refer to the latest official announcements.