The US truckload market is heading into the holiday peak with virtually no capacity buffer. According to FreightWaves, the Accepted SONAR Truckload Volume Index (ASTVI), which measures only loads carriers accept, fell more than 4% over the past four weeks to 9,518, its lowest level outside a holiday week since January. Yet the national rejection rate (STRI) has barely moved and remains near 13.9%.
What Happened
The ASTVI index tracks only loads accepted by carriers. It dropped over 4% in four weeks to 9,518, the lowest reading outside a holiday week since January. Normally such a decline would give carriers room to breathe, but the national rejection rate has hardly budged, holding near 13.9%.
Market efficiency has shown little improvement from a year ago. Last year, the market entered peak season with rejections under 6% and the ASTVI roughly 2% higher than current levels. After 11 months of elevated rates, accepted volumes have moved lower rather than higher, contrary to many expectations.
The report notes key differences from the post-COVID inflationary cycle. The COVID cycle was driven mainly by surging demand: tender volumes rose nearly 50% year over year from September 2019 to September 2020, and accepted volumes rose 20%, quickly absorbing excess capacity. The current cycle is more supply-led: rejection rates and spot rates were already well above the prior three years during the 2025 holiday season, and Winter Storm Fern in late January 2026 pushed them higher, with neither meaningfully retreating since.
Background
Another major difference is that barriers to entry are much higher now. English language proficiency enforcement, stricter rules on non-domiciled CDLs and tougher immigration policies are keeping a large pool of potential drivers out of the industry. The Montgomery v. Caribe ruling has an indirect effect, as brokers are less likely to use carriers with poor safety records. According to GenLogs, close to 2% of carriers with substandard safety scores had been removed from service as of this past summer.
Cost pressures also constrain capacity recovery. Retail diesel prices are up 73% year over year, and dry van spot rates are up 43% but have not kept pace with fuel in recent months, squeezing carrier profitability. Unlike the COVID era, borrowing costs are higher and low-cost government lending is unavailable, making carriers that survived the difficult stretch from mid-2022 to late last year hesitant to invest in growth. The report expects transportation procurement teams to prepare for a tighter market for longer, potentially into 2027.
Impact on Shippers
On transit times, tight US truckload capacity means greater difficulty securing last-mile and truck delivery appointments during peak season, potentially extending wait times for truck pickup after container release and adding variability to delivery schedules on some lanes. On costs, dry van spot rates remain elevated year over year and diesel prices are up sharply, so carriers may pass through costs via surcharges or rate adjustments, keeping US inland ground costs from falling in the near term. On customs clearance, truck capacity tightness does not directly change clearance procedures, but poor coordination between container pickup and delivery can increase port storage and demurrage risk, raising overall logistics costs.
Recommendations
Shippers should plan peak-season and early-2027 inventory replenishment in advance, allow wider buffers for truck delivery timelines at major US West and East Coast ports, confirm how last-mile truck capacity is secured with logistics providers and book appointments early where necessary, verify documentation and pickup plans to avoid demurrage from delivery delays, and monitor diesel price trends for their impact on ground surcharges to factor cost volatility into quotes.