The SONAR Pricing Power Index (PPI), which measures whether carriers or shippers hold negotiating leverage in the U.S. freight market, fell to 70 for the week of Oct. 12, 2026, down from 71 the prior week. It was the fourth consecutive weekly decline. On the index's 0–100 scale, 50 represents a historically balanced market, and a reading above 50 favors carriers. Despite the dip, carriers retain the upper hand in rate negotiations heading into the fourth quarter.
What Happened
Two metrics accounted for most of this week's decline. Intermodal contract rates fell to $1.61 a mile from $1.68, subtracting roughly 0.9 points on their own. Ocean import bookings slipped about 2%, costing about 0.6 points. Small gains in van contract rates, the spot-contract spread, rejections and accepted volume clawed back about half a point.
On capacity, the national tender rejection rate (STRI) was essentially flat at 13.85% versus 13.84% last week, in the 83rd percentile of the past five years. Weekly rejections have stayed between roughly 13.3% and 14.4% since early August, well below the 17–18% peak of late June but still more than two and a half times the level of two years ago.
On demand, rail volume eased less than 1% to 35,575 loaded containers but held in the 99th percentile. Truckload carriers continue to be more selective, pushing loads onto rail on lanes of roughly 550 to 1,500 miles. The national spot rate eased to $3.52 a mile from $3.56, still in the 95th percentile. Van contract rates ticked up to $2.74 a mile, and the spot-contract spread narrowed to negative $0.11.
Background
The index combines eight SONAR metrics—tender rejections, accepted volume, rail volume, ocean TEU bookings, spot rates, van contract rates, the spot/contract spread and intermodal contract rates—each ranked against its own five-year weekly history and weighted into a single 0–100 score. Readings above 50 favor carriers; below 50 favor shippers.
This week's decline comes as spot rates have pulled back from their early-July peak of $3.80 a mile while contract rates keep rising. The spot-contract spread has been negative since mid-September, reflecting carriers repricing contracts upward. The three-month PPI outlook trimmed to 76 from 79, with the model projecting tender rejections reaching the 93rd percentile by mid-January.
Impact on Shippers
On transit times, rail volume remains elevated in the 99th percentile, indicating that mid-distance lanes of roughly 550 to 1,500 miles continue converting from truck to rail. Shippers relying on direct truckload may face pickup delays as carriers become more selective, and should build in longer lead times.
On cost, spot rates have eased from their July peak but remain in the 95th percentile, while contract rates have risen to the 84th percentile, meaning shippers are unlikely to negotiate significant rate cuts in the near term. The decline in intermodal contract rates to $1.61 a mile offers some cost relief for cargo that can move by rail. On customs clearance, this week's information involves no policy changes; ocean import bookings have softened but remain above year-ago levels, with no new pressure on ports or clearance.
Recommendations
Shippers should evaluate rail-connected options for mid- and long-distance cargo to take advantage of lower intermodal contract rates; for time-sensitive freight, confirm pickup and acceptance arrangements with carriers in advance to avoid delays caused by carrier selectivity; and monitor the spot-contract spread when negotiating contracts to set appropriate lock-in periods, while tracking the index for further changes to adjust stocking and transport schedules.