Freight markets are often called cycles, but the term implies a regularity the data does not support. According to a foreign media analysis, since 2000 the turns in the US domestic transportation market have looked more like a series of random shocks than clockwork, making it risky for shippers to predict rate movements on that basis.
What Happened
The analysis, citing the Cass Freight Shipments Index (CFIS) and the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index (CTLI), notes that the US freight market has gone through several distinct cycles of varying shape over the past 25 years. CFIS covers truckload, intermodal, LTL and other modes, representing overall transportation demand; CTLI measures base truckload cost excluding fuel and accessorials, making it a good gauge of supply and demand.
After 2000, the dot-com collapse and 9/11 pushed the economy into recession, with goods demand subdued for longer. In 2004 the economy rebounded strongly, low interest rates fueled a housing boom, and freight brokerages grew with internet technology. The 2008 housing collapse triggered the Great Recession, with weakness lingering into 2010.
The 2011-2015 period was the most stable in 26 years, with CFIS showing a clear 12-month seasonal pattern and base rates growing about 3% a year. The late-2015 energy collapse led to a mini freight recession in 2016, with truckload base rates falling about 2%. In 2017-2018, rising demand, tighter capacity, tax cuts, hurricanes and the ELD mandate produced one of the strongest spot-rate upswings in modern history; capacity then expanded quickly, and the 2019 freight recession led to major trucking failures.
COVID was the second black-swan event in three years, with government stimulus and remote work driving an unprecedented goods boom, followed by the longest freight recession from early 2022 through the 2025 holiday season. A new cycle is now nearly a year old, and the data suggests putting a timeline on any cycle is a fool's errand. According to CTLI, rates were up 10% year over year in September while volumes rose only 2%, with relatively weak demand coexisting with rising rates.
Background
The analysis stresses that the freight market does not operate on an island and is shaped by every part of the economy and outside forces. Regulatory pressure, diesel prices and interest rates are raising barriers to entry as part of the current cycle. History suggests 12 months is the low end for how long this cycle will last; any upside economic surprise could extend it by several months. Expecting the 2010-2015 stable environment to return may be the worst assumption a business can make when planning ahead.
Impact on Shippers
For Chinese cross-border e-commerce sellers and foreign trade factories shipping to the US, the irregularity of US domestic freight cycles means last-mile truck capacity and rates are hard to predict by fixed seasonal patterns. With rates rising while volumes are weak, shippers who delay bookings betting on a quick rate decline may face higher costs; conversely, if the economy slows, rates may soften but end demand would also weaken, pressuring orders and inventory turnover.
On transit times, volatility in the US domestic transport market can feed into port drayage and overseas warehouse replenishment rhythms, increasing uncertainty in last-mile pickup and delivery during peak seasons or disruptions. On customs clearance, freight cycles do not directly change clearance rules, but volume swings can affect inspection and release rhythms at ports, so shippers should allow more time for documentation.
Recommendations
Shippers are advised not to rely solely on "cycle patterns" but to plan first-mile and last-mile capacity around their own order rhythms, lock in stage-based rates or space with logistics providers, build buffer time for time-sensitive cargo, and verify customs documents in advance to reduce extra costs from sudden volatility.