US parcel carriers are expected to deliver roughly 2.4 billion packages this holiday peak season, 4% more than a year earlier and the highest level since 2022, according to ShipMatrix.
Part of the lift comes from the calendar: the season has one extra shopping day this year. ShipMatrix, which helps shippers get more out of their FedEx, UPS and regional carrier agreements, cites that as a driver of demand.
Shippers are paying more for it. Retail parcel rates are up 16% year over year, driven largely by fuel surcharges, new fees and general rate increases, according to the latest TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index. Fuel surcharges now account for about 30% of the transportation rate, and most of the spike reflects carriers changing the formula used to calculate the fee rather than higher fuel costs. FedEx and UPS each implemented 5.9% general rate increases this year and have said they will repeat the increase in 2027.
Higher costs are showing up at checkout. Some retailers have raised the minimum spend required for free shipping. On the hiring side, UPS plans to bring on 100,000 seasonal workers, down from 109,000 last year; Amazon is hiring 300,000 seasonal staff, up 20%; and the US Postal Service plans to add 10,000.
The hiring numbers reflect volume shifting between networks. UPS gave up 50% of its Amazon business because last-mile delivery for the retailer was not profitable, and it is leaning more on automated sorting. In the first half of 2026, Amazon's US domestic parcel volume rose 9.7% and FedEx's rose 4.6%, while UPS and USPS fell 5.7% and 3.1% respectively, per ShipMatrix. The volume lost by UPS and USPS exceeded the gains at Amazon and FedEx, with an additional 145 million packages diverted to private networks run by large retailers such as Walmart and to alternate carriers including GoFo, Uni-Uni, SpeedX, OnTrac, Veho and others that have expanded coverage over the past two years.
For Chinese shippers on US lanes, the takeaway sits in the last mile: with UPS and USPS volumes shrinking and retailer networks and regional carriers picking up the slack, last-mile choice will drive both transit time and surcharges this peak. Before booking ocean-parcel or overseas-warehouse fulfillment, confirm which carrier handles the last mile and which surcharge formula applies.