New truckload contracts in the US are being signed at rates roughly 13% higher than the rates they replace, and the double-digit increases have persisted for several months, indicating carriers retain strong pricing power in contract negotiations.
What Happened
The Contract Rate Change Direction index (CRCD.USA) stood at 13.11% on Oct. 22, up from 3.53% a year earlier. The index measures the average percentage difference between a new contract base rate and the one it replaced within an established shipper-carrier relationship, counting only changes where the old rate had held steady for more than 90 days to filter out short-term noise and isolate true bid-cycle repricing.
The index is a seven-day rolling average updated daily. It strips out temporary route guide waterfalling and contract-plus pricing to show more durable rate changes. It measures only contracts that are changing, making it largely agnostic to volume, and readings can thin out when few contracts change.
CRCD also does not account for whether a carrier moves up or down in a shipper's routing guide after a rate change. In 2025, contract resets ran at roughly 3% to 4% starting in late 2024, yet the average contract rate index showed flat to slightly lower invoiced rates through most of the year. Pairing the two indexes shows how successful carriers' rate increases have been.
Background
Contract rate changes lag tender rejection rates. With rejection rates averaging close to 13% over the past few months, contract increases are still coming in above 10%. Carriers had been pushing for increases a year before the market turned, and are now securing what would have been the equivalent of a few years' worth of increases in one cycle.
Despite elevated rates, FMCSA and tender data suggest capacity has not grown meaningfully over the past 12 months, so it may take time for the curve to flatten.
Impact on Shippers
For Chinese exporters and cross-border e-commerce sellers shipping to the US, sustained double-digit truckload contract increases will directly raise US domestic drayage and last-mile delivery costs, particularly affecting Ocean + Truck Delivery and overseas warehouse-to-FBA transfers. Cost pressure may pass along the supply chain and squeeze margins.
On transit times, flat capacity growth combined with high rejection rates means truck capacity tightness remains a risk during peak seasons or demand spikes, and shippers should watch for last-mile delays. Customs clearance itself is not directly affected, but higher overall logistics costs may prompt some shippers to adjust declared values or routing plans, requiring advance planning.
Recommendations
Shippers are advised to lock in truckload contract rates with carriers early to avoid accepting high spot prices during capacity crunches; plan inventory cycles reasonably and factor US drayage costs into overall quotes; monitor capacity data and flexibly adjust the mix of Ocean + Truck Delivery and Ocean + Parcel channels; and verify documentation and routing with logistics providers to reduce last-mile uncertainty.