Freight data platform Sonar on Thursday released three US truckload dataset groups that, for the first time, quantify the backup capacity premiums shippers pay when routing guides fail, offering a market benchmark for US inland transportation costs.
What Happened
The three indices are Routing Guide Premiums, Routing Guide Acceptance Share, and Contract Rate Change Direction. All update daily on a seven-day rolling average and measure shipper-to-provider costs, not carrier operating costs or broker margins.
The Routing Guide Premiums index shows the median percent change in all-in costs when a load is accepted on the second tender rather than the first. The second tender currently runs at a 9.25% premium versus a 12-month average of 8.77%, while the third-plus tender sits at 19.84%, roughly double the second-tender cost. Both figures are well above last November, when second-tender premiums were near 4% as capacity was just beginning to tighten. Seasonal data shows third-plus tender premiums topped 35% in late December, early February, and June into early July.
The Routing Guide Acceptance Share index shows first-tender acceptance currently at 89.29%, below the 12-month average of 89.54% and well off the roughly 93% recorded last November. The second position accounts for 6.67% of accepted loads and third-plus for 4.16%, reflecting more freight falling to backup providers as the market has tightened over the past year.
The Contract Rate Change Direction index currently reads 13.11%, meaning new contracts are resetting roughly 13% above the rates they replaced, up from approximately 4% last November and above the 12-month average of 8.52%. The reading peaked above 16% in early October before easing slightly. According to the platform, the comparable reading was about 4% at the same point in 2025, ranged between 3% and 6% in 2024, and was negative in 2023. The current 13.11% is the highest since early 2022 and nearly four times the five-year average of 3.47%.
Background
US truck capacity has gradually tightened over the past year, pushing down first-tender acceptance rates on shippers' routing guides and forcing more freight to backup carriers, which raises actual transportation costs. Meanwhile, newly signed contract rates continue to reset higher, reflecting carriers' stronger bargaining power in a tighter capacity environment. The platform noted that if a company's first-tender acceptance is slipping faster than the national number, the problem may lie in its own routing guide rather than the market alone.
Impact on Shippers
For Chinese exporters using US inland trucking for last-mile delivery, if cargo needs to move by truck from the port of destination to an overseas warehouse or FBA warehouse after customs clearance, rejection on the first tender and a shift to backup carriers will directly raise last-mile costs: about 9% more on the second tender and nearly 20% on the third-plus tender, with seasonal spikes potentially exceeding 35%. At the same time, lower first-tender acceptance means greater uncertainty in transit times, as backup carriers may take longer to respond and pick up, affecting warehouse appointment and replenishment schedules.
Rising contract rate resets mean new US inland transportation contracts carry noticeably higher base rates than old ones, requiring shippers to reassess last-mile logistics budgets. The customs clearance process itself is not directly affected by these indices, but higher transportation costs may prompt some shippers to adjust port choices or split delivery plans, indirectly affecting post-clearance transfer arrangements.
Recommendations
Shippers are advised to regularly check their own routing guides' first-tender acceptance rates against the national average and optimize carrier mix if persistently low; secure backup capacity and budget for premiums ahead of peak season; reference the Contract Rate Change Direction index when signing new US inland transportation contracts to avoid budgeting on old rates; and confirm pickup times with last-mile providers to reduce warehouse delays caused by slower backup carrier response.