The global containership orderbook has climbed to 46.5% of the active fleet, the highest level since 2009, as carriers compete to lock in ultra-large tonnage and Chinese shipyards capture the bulk of new orders.
What Happened
According to Linerlytica, the orderbook stands at 16.2 million TEU, with newbuilding activity showing no sign of slowing. Chinese shipyards alone have booked a record 4.94 million TEU this year, accounting for 88% of total capacity ordered.
The orderbook-to-fleet ratio is expected to rise further, with Maersk and CMA CGM both in the market for more giant ships. Hengli Heavy Industries announced orders for 52 ultra-large dual-fuel containerships: 20 at 24,000 TEU, 20 at 19,000 TEU and 12 at 22,000 TEU.
The 24,000 TEU orders are believed to be from MSC, which reportedly wants 10 LNG dual-fuelled vessels and is upgrading 10 existing 22,000 TEU orders to 24,000 TEU, with a total outlay of close to $2.5bn. Maersk is eyeing a dozen 24,000 TEU ships, up to 24 LNG dual-fuel 19,000 TEU vessels and six at 18,600 TEU, with South Korean and Chinese yards invited to quote. CMA CGM has reportedly chosen Yangzijiang to build a dozen LNG dual-fuelled 24,000 TEU ships, though the French line has yet to confirm.
The ordering activity extends across segments. Zhonggu Logistics has ordered two 14,000 TEU ships at Hudong-Zhonghua for $155m each, with delivery set for 2029 to 2030. HMM announced an order for eight 13,000 TEU LNG dual-fuelled ships from HD Hyundai Heavy Industries for around $1.5bn, for deployment on its Far East-India-Mediterranean service from 2029.
Background
The order wave reflects carriers' pursuit of scale economies and fleet renewal. After MSC overtook Maersk as the world's largest liner operator in 2022, Maersk is seeking to narrow the capacity gap by ordering ultra-large ships. LNG dual-fuel propulsion has become the mainstream choice for new orders, reflecting the industry's early compliance planning on emissions. Mid-sized carriers are also entering the mainline segment with larger ships or acquiring second-hand feeder vessels to strengthen hub-and-spoke networks.
Impact on Shippers
On transit times, new deliveries are concentrated in 2029-2030, so near-term capacity supply will not increase significantly, and space tightness and peak-season rollovers on the transpacific remain a risk. On costs, the large orderbook implies sustained capacity release in the medium term, putting downward pressure on rates, though short-term rates remain supported by active capacity deployment and peak volumes. On customs clearance, the orders do not involve tariff or clearance policy changes, so shippers need not adjust documentation processes.
Recommendations
Shippers should watch the capacity window before new ships are delivered en masse in 2027-2028, and lock in peak-season space with forwarders early. For time-sensitive cargo, prioritize carriers with stable schedules and build in a 3-5 day buffer. Also monitor carrier service rotations as new tonnage enters fleets, and verify vessel and voyage details on bills of lading and customs declarations.