Container spot rates on the transpacific eastbound trade recorded their steepest weekly decline since June 2025 as this year's extended peak season drew to a close, casting doubt on carriers' planned Nov 1 general rate increase (GRI).
What Happened
Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) showed the Shanghai-Los Angeles spot rate down 6% week on week to $7,514 per 40ft, while Shanghai-New York fell 5% to $9,631 per 40ft. Drewry noted that strong US import demand is easing, citing the US National Retail Federation's forecast of an 11% month-on-month decline in US ocean import volumes in November, which could add further downward pressure on rates.
However, US forwarders described the week as "stable" rather than falling: pricing carried over from the prior week, space availability improved, and vessel schedules became more consistent. As the traditional pre-holiday ocean peak fully closed out, pricing settled into a holding pattern across both coasts.
Forwarders said that with demand weakening and remaining urgent pre-holiday shipments shifting to air freight, the chances of the Nov 1 GRI—ranging from $2,000 to $3,000 per 40ft depending on carrier—sticking are diminishing. They expect China-to-US ocean rates to remain broadly stable through the first half of November, with possible modest declines.
Background
The prolonged peak season pulled forward cargo volumes, leading to a natural rate correction afterward. Carriers are managing capacity through blank sailings, but the number of blanked sailings fell to four next week from eight this week, weakening supply-side support. Drewry also questioned whether the new rate levels would hold given ample available capacity and weak demand, expecting rates to remain stable next week.
Asia-Europe routes told a different story: Shanghai-Rotterdam rose 1% to $3,686 per 40ft and Shanghai-Genoa held at $4,151 per 40ft, though carriers were quietly discounting to fill ships. MSC and CMA CGM announced rate targets for Nov 1 and Nov 15, but Linerlytica noted that Gemini members Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk were offering lower spot rates, prompting others to follow, and concluded the Nov 1 hike is "effectively doomed."
Impact on Shippers
On transit times, improved space availability and more consistent schedules have eased booking difficulty on US lanes, though urgent cargo shifting to air means time-sensitive shipments need earlier planning. On costs, spot rates are expected to stay stable near term and the GRI is less likely to stick, giving shippers slightly more bargaining room; however, any renewed blank sailing push could support rates. On customs clearance, softer US import demand and lower volumes reduce pressure at ports and clearance points, potentially shortening document review and inspection waits, though compliance with US customs declaration requirements remains a constant.
Recommendations
Shippers should use the current stable pricing window to confirm November first-half space and quotes with forwarders, avoiding locking in space at post-GRI levels; evaluate sea-air or air options for time-sensitive pre-holiday replenishment; and double-check commercial invoices, packing lists and declaration details to ensure smooth clearance. Rates and surcharges are subject to the latest carrier and forwarder quotes.