The global shipyard order book stood at an estimated 203.2 million compensated gross tonnage (CGT) as of September 1, 2026, up 13% from a year earlier, according to BIMCO. Chinese yards secured 74% of tonnage contracted over the past year and now hold 64% of the global backlog.
What Happened
BIMCO Chief Shipping Analyst Niels Rasmussen said the current backlog is slightly below the all-time high of 210.4 million CGT reached in May 2026 but remains above the previous record of 195.4 million CGT set in 2008.
Chinese shipyards account for 64% of the global order book, followed by South Korea at 19% and Japan at 6%. In each of the six main cargo-carrying segments—container, tanker, gas tanker, dry bulk, other dry cargo and RoRo—Chinese yards hold more than 72% of the order book, with the largest share in container ships at 81%.
Container ships dominate both the backlog and its growth, representing 30% of CGT on order and 68% of the increase over the past year.
In terms of capacity coverage, assuming each yard's capacity equals its highest annual output in 2021–2025, Chinese yards hold orders equivalent to 4.2 years of capacity, versus 1.9 years for South Korean yards and 1.7 years for Japanese yards. If scheduled deliveries through 2030 are included in the capacity assumption, average coverage falls to 2.1 years for China and 1.6 years for both South Korea and Japan.
Background
Global newbuilding activity has been strong since 2021, with container ship orders rising sharply on high freight rates and fleet renewal demand. Chinese yards have built a dominant position across major commercial vessel types through scale, delivery efficiency and cost advantages. Combined deliveries from China, South Korea and Japan are scheduled to reach 55.9 million CGT in 2027 and 60.0 million CGT in 2028, well above the 2025 peak of 40.1 million CGT. Chinese yards alone are scheduled to deliver a record 44.0 million CGT in 2028, nearly twice the 22.7 million CGT delivered in 2025.
Impact on Shippers
A large order book implies concentrated fleet capacity additions over the next two to three years, particularly in container shipping. For shippers on China-US routes, medium-term capacity growth may ease peak-season space constraints, but short-term rates will still be driven by active capacity deployment and demand fluctuations, so order book data alone should not be used to predict rate movements.
On delivery timing, scheduled output for 2027–2028 is significantly above current capacity levels, and whether yards can deliver on schedule remains uncertain. Delays could slow fleet renewal on some routes, so shippers should build flexibility into long-term contracts and peak-season stocking plans.
Recommendations
Shippers should monitor fleet delivery progress and capacity adjustments on their routes, avoid overcommitting to a single rate direction in annual contracts, secure space early ahead of peak season, and allow buffer time for possible schedule changes. Specific capacity arrangements are subject to the latest carrier announcements.