The global shipbuilding order book is approaching a record high, with Chinese yards dominating. According to new analysis from shipping association BIMCO, the global order book stood at an estimated 203.2 million compensated gross tonnage (CGT) as of September 1, 2026, up 13% from 180 million CGT a year earlier.
What Happened
The figure is slightly below the all-time high of 210.4 million CGT reached in May 2026 but remains above the previous record of 195.4 million CGT set in 2008. Chinese shipyards secured 74% of all CGT contracted over the past 12 months and now control 64% of the global order book, far ahead of South Korea at 19% and Japan at 6%.
China's lead is even more pronounced across major commercial vessel segments. Its yards hold more than 72% of the order book in each of the six main categories—containerships, tankers, gas carriers, bulk carriers, other dry cargo ships and RoRo vessels—which together account for 88% of the global order book.
Containerships are driving much of the growth. BIMCO Chief Shipping Analyst Niels Rasmussen said container ships account for 30% of CGT on order and 68% of the increase over the past year. Chinese yards hold an 81% share of the global containership order book.
Background
The massive backlog presents delivery challenges. Based on each country's highest annual output between 2021 and 2025, Chinese yards have enough orders to keep them busy for an average of 4.2 years, compared with 1.9 years for South Korea and 1.7 years for Japan. Combined output from China, South Korea and Japan reached 40.1 million CGT in 2025, but scheduled deliveries climb to 55.9 million CGT in 2027 and 60 million CGT in 2028.
China faces the steepest increase, with scheduled deliveries of a record 44 million CGT in 2028, nearly double the 22.7 million CGT delivered in 2025. BIMCO estimates that if capacity is measured against the highest annual output delivered or scheduled between 2021 and 2030, China's order book coverage falls to 2.1 years, compared with 1.6 years for both South Korea and Japan. Rasmussen noted that Chinese yards must raise annual output to new record highs to deliver, and the capacity expansion needed could increase the risk of underutilisation if contracting weakens in the future.
Impact on Shippers
For China-US cross-border shippers, the high order book means global containership capacity will continue to expand in the coming years. With containership orders dominating and deliveries concentrated in 2027-2028, effective capacity on major routes such as the transpacific is expected to increase, putting medium- to long-term pressure on freight rates. In the short term, however, delivery schedules, scrapping of older vessels and carriers' capacity deployment strategies will still affect actual slot supply.
On customs clearance and transit times, this information does not directly involve tariff or port policies, so shippers need not adjust documentation arrangements. However, if carriers adjust port calls or schedules due to concentrated newbuilding deliveries, first-mile transit times on US West and East Coast routes may fluctuate, and shippers should monitor carrier schedule announcements.
Recommendations
Shippers are advised to incorporate shipbuilding cycles into medium- and long-term logistics cost planning, pay attention to capacity deployment in 2027-2028 when negotiating annual ocean contracts to secure more favourable rate terms, and maintain a mix of carriers and routes to avoid replenishment disruptions from single-carrier schedule changes. This analysis is based on public industry data; actual capacity and rates are subject to the latest carrier and official announcements.